How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether the US Federal Reserve will reduce its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at any point during 2026, with the market currently pricing an 80% chance that it will not happen. This binary outcome hinges on the Fed’s response to persistent inflation pressures, geopolitical instability, and labour market data throughout the year.

Historically, the Fed has rarely cut rates in a year of rising inflation or external shocks; the 2025 cycle saw three cuts, but 2026 has so far delivered none, with the target range steady at 3.50%–3.75%[1][3]. A Reuters poll of 102 economists found 72 expect the rate to remain unchanged for the rest of 2026, while market futures now imply a near-100% chance of no cut after the March meeting[2][5]. The Fed’s own dot plot suggests only one cut is likely, possibly late in the year, yet many analysts, including J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs, now forecast no cuts until 2027[4][6].

Traders should monitor the FOMC meeting calendar, inflation reports (CPI and PCE), and any emergency actions triggered by geopolitical events, such as the Iran conflict or Middle East tensions[8][9]. The June 16–17 meeting, chaired by Kevin Warsh, is expected to hold rates steady, with no cut anticipated[5]. Recent commentary from Morningstar notes that inflation shocks have pushed market expectations from two cuts in January to nearly zero by mid-2026[2]. Regulatory accessibility for this market is shaped by German GlüStV rules on gambling, US CFTC oversight of derivatives, and the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold, which allows retail participants to access the market without identity verification, enhancing liquidity while remaining within legal boundaries.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.