Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ECHO (-3.5) vs Walczaki (+3.5) | 100% ECHO | 0% Walczaki |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs ECHO (+3.5) | 0% Walczaki | 100% ECHO |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ECHO (-6.5) vs Walczaki (+6.5) | 0% ECHO | 100% Walczaki |
Market context
The underlying event is the Counter-Strike Upper bracket final match between ECHO and Walczaki in Super Draculan Group B, originally set for 11:00 AM ET on 25 June 2026. This prediction market resolves to "ECHO" if they win, "Walczaki" if they prevail, or 50-50 if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner.
Historical precedents in esports betting, such as the 2024 European Pro League Series 7 where Walczaki defeated KOLESIE in a BO5 format on 22 June 2026[2][3], frame how to interpret the current 100% crowd-implied probability. Past matches involving Polish teams in BO5 formats, including Walczaki’s April 28 encounter against Tricked at Tipsport Conquest of Prague 2026[5], suggest that Walczaki’s recent performance may not justify such absolute certainty, yet the crowd’s confidence remains unshaken.
Traders should monitor official tournament announcements for schedule changes, match start confirmations, or forfeiture notices, as these directly impact settlement. Recent coverage from GosuGamers highlights the importance of tracking live CS2 schedules and player stats for upcoming matches[4]. Regulatory considerations include German GlüStV implications for esports betting, US CFTC reach over prediction markets, and the accessibility of "no-KYC up to $1,500" platforms, which allow traders to participate without identity verification for smaller stakes, enhancing market liquidity.
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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