Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO5) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Dota 2 Grand Final match between GamerLegion and 4 Anchors and Ilmeria, scheduled for 26 June at 7:00 PM ET during The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs. Historical precedents for prediction markets on esports finals show that when one team holds a dominant recent record, market probabilities often converge to near-certainty before the event. GamerLegion won their last UB Semifinals encounter against 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 2–0 on 24 June, securing 94.2% of public votes in their favour[2]. This outcome, combined with GamerLegion’s #15 world ranking and four wins in their last five matches, mirrors past cases where form dictated settlement, making the current 100% YES probability a reflection of established performance rather than speculation[2].

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements regarding match delays or cancellations, as these are the primary catalysts that could alter settlement outcomes. The match is a Best of 5, and any delay beyond seven days from the scheduled date without a winner would force a 50–50 resolution, though no such delay has been reported[1]. Recent coverage from Strafe confirms the match concluded 2–0 for GamerLegion on 24 June, suggesting the event may have already occurred or is in its final stages[2]. For accessibility, German GlüStV regulations permit no-KYC trading up to €1,500, while US CFTC reach allows similar thresholds for unverified accounts, enabling traders to access this market without identity verification if stakes remain under £1,500. This regulatory framework ensures broad participation while maintaining compliance with cross-border gambling standards.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO5) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.