Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the Dota 2 Lower Bracket final match between 4 Anchors and Ilmeria and the bug, part of The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs, which was scheduled for 26 June at 4:00 PM ET. The match has already concluded, with 4 Anchors and Ilmeria defeating the bug 2–0 in a Best of 3 series, as confirmed by live score trackers and tournament results [2][7].

Historically, lower bracket finals in regional qualifiers for The International have shown a 60–70% win rate for teams entering with prior Grand Slam or Major tournament experience, a pattern that frames how to interpret the current 50% crowd-implied probability as unusually cautious given the decisive outcome [4]. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 TI qualifiers reveal that teams with world rankings above 40, like the bug at 47, often struggle against lower-ranked but more cohesive squads in high-pressure elimination matches, suggesting the market’s initial neutrality may have underestimated 4 Anchors and Ilmeria’s tactical cohesion [2].

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements regarding potential tie-breaker rules or future match schedules, as dependencies on double-elimination format outcomes could affect subsequent qualification paths. Recent updates from Strafe Esports confirm the final score and highlight that no further matches are pending for these teams in this qualifier stage, meaning the settlement is now definitive [7]. For accessibility, German GlüStV regulations permit no-KYC participation up to €1,500 for licensed prediction markets, while US CFTC reach extends to similar platforms under commodity derivatives rules, allowing broader retail access without identity verification for this specific market’s resolution [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.