Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Israel and Iran have not agreed to a permanent peace deal, and the current crowd-implied probability of such an outcome by May 2026 remains at zero per cent. This reflects the deep-seated reality that no formal agreement explicitly ending military hostilities between the two nations has ever been reached, despite decades of regional conflict.

Historical precedents frame this zero probability starkly. The Oslo Accords, spanning over twenty years of failed US-led peace talks, collapsed due to Israeli settlement expansion and broken promises, never delivering a lasting end to conflict for the Palestinians or the region[1]. Similarly, the recent US-Iran memorandum of understanding, signed in June 2026, established an immediate cessation of military operations on all fronts including Lebanon, yet it explicitly deferred final nuclear negotiations and a definitive peace treaty to a subsequent sixty-day window, leaving the Israel-Iran hostilities unresolved[2][4]. Israel has already indicated it will not withdraw forces from Lebanon, directly contradicting the spirit of a permanent peace that would include Israel and Iran[2].

Traders must monitor the formal signing of the US-Iran deal scheduled for Friday in Switzerland and the subsequent sixty-day negotiation window for a final agreement, which excludes Iran’s missile programme and support for resistance groups[3][6]. Crucially, watch for any Israeli announcement regarding a withdrawal from Lebanon or a direct ceasefire with Iran, as Israel’s current strikes on Hezbollah suggest a continued hardline stance[2]. Recent reporting from Al Jazeera confirms the deal’s formalisation is imminent, but the exclusion of key strategic issues from the negotiation agenda remains a significant barrier to any Israel-Iran peace[6].

Regarding regulatory accessibility, this market operates under German GlüStV implications for gambling supervision and US CFTC reach for derivatives, yet the 'no-KYC up to $1,500' threshold allows traders to access this specific geopolitical prediction without identity verification, provided the transaction stays within that limit. This structure enhances accessibility for those monitoring the US-Iran peace framework’s evolution without triggering standard compliance hurdles.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.