Bitcoin price on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the final closing price of the Bitcoin/USDT pair on Binance at noon Eastern Time on 25 June 2026, which will determine whether the market resolves to "Yes" or "No". Historical precedent shows that prediction markets tied to specific price thresholds often assign near-zero probability when the asset is trading significantly below the target, as seen in the current 0% YES crowd-implied probability. Comparable cases include markets where Bitcoin hovered around $59,600 in mid-June 2026, while the threshold for "Yes" likely exceeds $64,000, mirroring the $72,145 price point recorded on 1 June 2026 that subsequently fell by over $33,500 from its all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025[1].

Traders should monitor upcoming regulatory announcements, particularly Germany’s GlüStV implementation affecting crypto-KYC rules and the US CFTC’s expanding reach over digital asset derivatives, which could alter market liquidity and accessibility. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" provision remains critical for this market’s accessibility, allowing retail participants to engage without identity verification, though this may be restricted if new compliance frameworks tighten. Recent price data indicates BTC trading at $59,664.01 on 25 June 2026, with a projected 5% increase over the next 30 days, potentially reaching $61,733.52, yet still below the implied threshold for a "Yes" resolution[2][5]. Regulatory shifts in 2026, including the next Bitcoin halving expected in 2028, may influence long-term price trajectories but offer limited immediate catalyst impact for this specific settlement window[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.