0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Zero ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any date between June 26 and July 2026 would signal a total closure of the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, disrupting roughly 21% of global oil supply and 25% of LNG trade [5][10]. This outcome hinges on IMF PortWatch publishing a daily arrival count of zero, a threshold not met since the strait’s brief reopening on 21 April 2026, which was reversed the following day amid security incidents [5][9].

Historical precedents show that even brief closures trigger immediate market shocks: during the February 2026 conflict, traffic fell to near-standstill, crude prices surged over 30%, and war-risk insurance premiums exceeded 16 times normal rates [4][5]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the June 17 US–Iran agreement guaranteeing immediate commercial navigation, with 25 vessels already recorded traversing the strait by late June—the highest volume since April [2]. However, the deal does not confirm Iran’s long-term authority over the strait, and tolls may be reintroduced after 60 days, creating regulatory uncertainty [2].

Traders should monitor the 19 July deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade and Iran’s commitment to restore pre-war traffic levels, alongside any announcements from AXSMarine or Kpler on vessel counts [2][6]. German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach mean this market operates under strict regulatory oversight, while ‘no-KYC up to $1,500’ allows accessible participation for users within those thresholds without identity verification. Recent data confirms crude exports through Hormuz are down 90% since the June deal, with zero activity on 10 of the last 19 days, underscoring volatility despite the agreement [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.

How are winnings taxed?

Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.

Can I trade anonymously?

Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.

What happens during a tax audit?

You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).