Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is President Trump’s recent declaration that a ceasefire agreement with Iran has been formally established, ending hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz for shipping[1][2]. This market resolves to “Yes” only if an official announcement later states that no such ceasefire is in effect, a scenario currently implied at just 2% probability given the deal’s public validation by Iran’s Deputy Minister and the scheduled signing in Switzerland[1][2].

Historically, similar US-Iran ceasefires have proven fragile; the Twelve-Day War ceasefire between Iran and Israel, mediated by the US, held for months before bombing resumed in February 2026 after initial violations[5]. Trump himself previously described a month-long US-Iran ceasefire as being on “massive life support” and “unbelievably weak” despite remaining technically active, highlighting how such agreements can linger in a precarious state before collapsing[3][6]. This precedent frames the current low probability as a reflection of the deal’s recent formalisation rather than its long-term durability.

Traders should monitor scheduled announcements, particularly the official signing event in Switzerland on 19 June and any subsequent extensions or violations of the ceasefire terms[1][2]. Dependencies include Iran’s compliance with reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the absence of renewed fire exchanges, as seen when both sides fired shots in May 2026 while Trump insisted the ceasefire remained in effect[7]. Recent reporting from Reuters confirms the deal’s imminent electronic or physical signing, suggesting the immediate catalyst for resolution is the formalisation of this peace agreement[4].

Regarding regulatory accessibility, this market operates under German GlüStV gambling regulations and US CFTC oversight, with “no-KYC up to $1,500” allowing traders to participate without identity verification below that threshold, enhancing accessibility for smaller accounts while maintaining compliance with KYC mandates above it. These frameworks ensure the market remains legally structured without offering legal advice on participation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.