US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is a signed memorandum between the United States and Iran, announced on 14 June 2026, which commits both nations to negotiating a final nuclear deal within 60 days while waiving immediate sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz[1][2]. This interim agreement, signed by President Trump and Iran’s leader, establishes a roadmap for denuclearisation, including the down-blending of 60% enriched uranium, and promises up to $300 billion in reconstruction aid contingent on further progress[2][3].

Historically, comparable cases such as the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action show that final deals often stall when verification mechanisms or asset-release schedules are disputed, yet current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders view the 60-day window as insufficient for a mutually signed instrument given past delays in technical ratification[2][6]. The 2015 deal lifted only partial sanctions, whereas this MOU offers broader relief, yet the dependency of $300 billion on future negotiations mirrors earlier patterns where economic benefits were withheld until concrete nuclear steps were verified[2][5].

Traders should monitor the June 17 signing date’s follow-up technical discussions, the formation of the high-level mediation committee, and Vance’s stated timeline for IAEA inspector access, all of which could signal whether the 60-day clock will yield a final instrument[3]. Recent reports confirm coordination mechanisms for Lebanon’s ceasefire and Hormuz demining are being established, but uncertainty remains over whether Iran will ship its 60% enriched uranium to the US or retain it domestically, a critical dependency for deal finalisation[3][5]. For market accessibility, German GlüStV regulations and US CFTC reach mean this market operates under strict regulatory oversight, though “no-KYC up to $1,500” allows traders to participate without identity verification, enhancing accessibility for those seeking exposure to geopolitical outcomes without bureaucratic hurdles.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.