Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Kharg Island remains firmly under Iranian military and governmental control, serving as the nation’s primary oil export terminal and handling roughly 90% of its crude exports, which makes any shift in sovereignty by March 2026 highly improbable given current force deployments and the island’s fortified status[1][3]. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the absence of any credible ground invasion, occupation, or internationally backed authority establishing control, as temporary strikes or naval presence do not meet the market’s resolution criteria[4][6].

Historically, comparable cases such as the 2026 US strikes on Kharg—targeting weapons storage but avoiding oil infrastructure and not deploying ground troops—demonstrate that military action alone does not equate to loss of control[4][6]. Past conflicts in the Gulf, including the Strait of Hormuz blockade, have led to retaliatory strikes but never to permanent territorial seizure by external forces, reinforcing why the market assigns near-zero likelihood to sovereignty change[3][5].

Traders should monitor official announcements from the US, Israel, or UN regarding ground troop deployment, scheduled naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, and any shifts in Iran’s oil export capacity, as these are the only catalysts that could alter control[3][7]. Recent reporting confirms that while bombing occurred in March 2026, no public announcement has been made about US ground forces occupying the island, and Iran has maintained full operational control of its oil terminal since[4][6]. For market accessibility, German GlüStV and US CFTC regulations apply to prediction markets, but the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows traders to participate without identity verification, enhancing accessibility for this specific market while remaining within regulatory bounds.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.