Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are barely navigating the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits hovering near zero instead of the typical sixty, as the waterway remains effectively closed following renewed hostilities between Iran and the United States[2][4]. This 16% market-implied probability of a return to normal traffic by June 30 reflects the stark reality that commercial shipping has been restricted for over 100 days, a duration unprecedented in modern history for this critical energy chokepoint[4]. Historical precedents show that even after the April 8, 2026 ceasefire, traffic remained at a trickle, dropping to merely six vessels in a single 24-hour window, while Iranian officials have threatened tolls and potential mining of the strait[2][3]. The brief reopening on April 21 was immediately reversed the next day, confirming that geopolitical deadlock and asymmetric threats like drones continue to suppress throughput to under 2% of normal levels[5].

Traders must monitor the Joint Maritime Information Centre’s daily assessments and any announcements regarding the US naval blockade or Iranian toll policies, as these are the primary dependencies for reopening[2]. Recent data indicates that tanker owners are attempting dark transits without AIS, yet war risk insurance premiums have surged to over 16 times normal rates, creating a massive economic barrier to regular commerce[5]. The market’s accessibility is further shaped by regulatory frameworks: German GlüStV and US CFTC reach mean that platforms offering "no-KYC up to $1,500" allow retail participants to bypass stringent identity checks, though this does not negate the underlying sanctions risks for entities paying Iranian tolls[2]. With oil prices surging and 21% of global oil supply at risk, the catalyst for a "Yes" resolution hinges entirely on a sustained diplomatic breakthrough that forces Tehran to lift its de facto blockade[3][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.