MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the player who records the highest number of stolen bases during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season, with tie-breakers determined by caught stealings, on-base percentage, and official MLB rules. Nasim Nuñez currently leads the season with 31 steals, followed closely by Bobby Witt Jr. with 28, while projections suggest Elly De La Cruz and Chandler Simpson could reach 41 by the end of September[3][4][6]. The current 8% crowd-implied probability reflects the uncertainty of whether a projected leader will overtake the current frontrunners before the settlement window closes on 28 September 2026[1].

Historically, stolen base leaders have often emerged from mid-season surges, with players like Rickey Henderson and Juan Pierre setting records through consistent aggression rather than early dominance. In 2023, Kevin Newman and Barrington Long both exceeded projections by late August, illustrating how late-season schedules and pitcher rotations can shift outcomes[3]. The 8% probability aligns with comparable cases where a projected leader failed to maintain pace, suggesting traders should weigh the volatility of late-season performance against current standings.

Traders should monitor weekly MLB stat updates, pitcher rotation announcements, and team schedules for games against weak defensive teams, which often correlate with higher steal opportunities. Recent ESPN reports confirm Nuñez’s lead but note Witt Jr.’s proximity, indicating a tight race that could hinge on final-week matchups[3]. Additionally, the regulatory landscape includes German GlüStV implications for EU traders, US CFTC reach for American participants, and the accessibility of “no-KYC up to $1,500” for this market, allowing broader participation without identity verification for smaller stakes[1]. These factors shape both the market’s liquidity and the strategic depth required to assess the 8% probability accurately.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews MLB: Stolen Bases Leader across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.