Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is an MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles, played on 26 June 2026 at Oriole Park in Baltimore, where the Orioles won 3–1[2]. This result confirms the market’s 0% YES probability for a Nationals victory, as the game has already concluded and the outcome is settled.

Historical precedents show that when a game finishes before the settlement window, markets resolve immediately based on official scores, not crowd-implied odds[2]. Comparable cases from the 2025 season confirm that postponed games delay resolution, but completed matches trigger instant settlement, making the current 0% probability a factual reflection of the final score rather than a speculative forecast[2].

Traders should monitor the official MLB final statistics for any post-game adjustments, though no such changes are expected for this match[2]. The next dependency is the 27 June game between the same teams, which begins at 7:15 PM ET and could influence broader series momentum, with odds averaging 0.247 for the Nationals[4]. Recent coverage notes James Wood’s strong performance at Camden Yards, a factor that may affect future matchups but not this resolved game[5]. Regulatory frameworks like German GlüStV and US CFTC rules permit “no-KYC up to $1,500” access, ensuring this market remains accessible to traders without identity verification, provided they comply with local tax and KYC thresholds[1]. This accessibility does not alter the resolved outcome but shapes how participants engage with similar open markets.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.