Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, with over 30,000 vessels passing annually and daily oil transport exceeding 20 million barrels[5]. Current market-implied probability of 12% for any ship transit by June 30, 2026, reflects ongoing regional conflict and data anomalies, including GPS jamming and AIS spoofing that cause vessels to go dark[4][8]. Recent IMF PortWatch data shows no meaningful recovery in shipping traffic, reinforcing the low probability of normalized transit calls[6].

Historical precedents from similar chokepoint disruptions suggest that low transit probabilities often persist until geopolitical tensions ease or data verification improves. Comparable markets, such as those tracking Strait traffic returning to normal by mid-July, have resolved negatively when 7-day moving averages failed to reach 60 ships[1]. This pattern indicates traders should interpret the 12% probability as a realistic assessment of continued disruption rather than an outlier.

Traders must monitor upcoming announcements on regional security, scheduled IMF PortWatch revisions (monthly updates with weekly revisions)[2], and any shifts in vessel tracking technology. A recent LinkedIn update from Oliver Exton confirms IMF PortWatch data has been refreshed through March 5, 2026, with further analysis pending[10]. Regulatory frameworks like Germany’s GlüStV and US CFTC reach may influence market accessibility, while “no-KYC up to $1,500” provisions allow broader participation without identity verification, enhancing liquidity for this specific prediction market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.