Who will enter Iran by June 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

No high-profile foreign leader is currently scheduled to physically enter Iran before the June 30 deadline, which aligns with the crowd-implied 0% probability for a positive resolution. This market hinges on a specific individual crossing into terrestrial Iranian territory, a scenario that remains improbable given the active military conflict and severe travel advisories warning Western nationals to avoid the country entirely[5].

Historically, similar prediction markets on political visits during active hostilities have resolved to "No" because diplomatic engagement occurs through technical talks in neutral venues like Switzerland rather than direct visits to conflict zones[1][2]. The recent fourteen-point Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, signed by Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian, terminated hostilities but established follow-on negotiations in Switzerland, reinforcing the pattern that high-level diplomacy avoids physical entry into Iran during this volatile period[3].

Traders should monitor the resumption of technical talks scheduled for June 30 in Switzerland and any sudden announcements regarding US-Iranian diplomatic schedules, as these are the primary catalysts for potential shifts in visit probability[1]. While the US recently eased restrictions for the Iranian national football team to travel to Seattle, this reciprocal easing does not indicate a corresponding opening for foreign leaders to enter Iran, and the security situation remains too unstable for such a visit to occur without explicit, high-level coordination[4]. Regulatory frameworks like the German GlüStV and US CFTC reach further limit accessibility for this market, particularly where "no-KYC up to $1,500" provisions may not apply to politically sensitive prediction contracts involving active conflict zones.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.