Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted since late February 2026, with daily transit calls dropping from roughly 100 to just six vessels, and currently near zero outbound movements. This severe bottleneck, driven by attacks on commercial ships and heightened military activity following US strikes on Iranian sites, has stranded over 150 vessels and surged global oil prices, creating a crisis where the strait remains closed despite a brief reopening on 21 April 2026[1][2][3].

Historical precedents of such chokepoint closures, including the 87% collapse in maritime traffic observed in early April 2026, suggest that restoring normalcy requires a formal peace deal rather than temporary ceasefires, framing the current 49% probability as a cautious bet on geopolitical resolution rather than operational fixes[2][10]. Traders must monitor President Trump’s stipulation that strait reopening is a prerequisite for any ceasefire with Tehran, alongside scheduled peace negotiations and potential US naval blockade declarations, as minimal progress has been made since the US-Israeli attack on 28 February[4]. Recent data from NBC News confirms that actual vessel figures may be higher due to GPS spoofing, yet the persistent closure continues to spike oil prices and threaten 21% of the world’s oil supply[4].

From a regulatory perspective, this market operates under the German GlüStV framework for gambling and the US CFTC’s reach over derivatives, where 'no-KYC up to $1,500' allows retail traders to access the position without identity verification, provided they remain within the threshold. This accessibility is critical for a market resolving on IMF PortWatch data, as it enables broad participation despite the high-stakes nature of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, where war risk insurance premiums exceed 16 times normal rates and daily economic costs surpass $4 billion[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.