Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are effectively blocked from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy, with commercial traffic reduced to near zero since late February 2026. This closure has persisted despite a US-Iran ceasefire signed on 8 April 2026, as routing uncertainty and Iranian toll demands continue to deter vessels[2]. The market’s 68% YES probability reflects hope that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will rebound to 60 by July 31, yet historical precedent shows such recoveries are fragile; the strait briefly reopened on 21 April before closing again the next day, with over 150 ships now stranded and throughput under 2% of normal levels[5].

Traders must monitor scheduled US naval patrols, Iranian announcements on toll enforcement, and any shifts in war-risk insurance premiums, which have surged to over 16 times normal rates[5]. Recent reporting confirms that only six vessels navigated the strait in the last 24 hours as of late April, underscoring the depth of the blockade[2]. A key dependency is whether Iran lifts its implied threat of mined waters or if the US lifts its naval blockade, both prerequisites for sustained traffic recovery[3].

From a regulatory standpoint, German GlüStV and US CFTC rules govern market accessibility, but the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows traders to participate without identity verification, enhancing liquidity for this specific event. This exemption does not alter the underlying risk: unless IMF Portwatch records a sustained rebound in arrivals, the market resolves NO. The closure represents the first operational shutdown of this transit hub in modern history, with 100 days elapsed since the initial blockage[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.