Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Vladimir Putin remains firmly in power, with no credible signs of voluntary resignation or forced removal before the end of 2026, which aligns with the current 10% crowd-implied probability of him ceasing to be President. Historical precedents suggest that internal coups—particularly from security agencies or the army—are the only realistic mechanisms for ousting him, yet such events remain highly improbable given his massive, complex security apparatus and the Kremlin’s criminalisation of non-systemic opposition[1][2]. Past constitutional impeachment under Article 93 requires a two-thirds parliamentary vote plus judicial consent, a threshold never met in practice, while assassination is effectively ruled out by the paranoia-level precautions surrounding “the Body”[2][9].

Traders should monitor scheduled Kremlin announcements, shifts in military or security service leadership, and any unexpected health disclosures, as these are the primary catalysts for a sudden change in status. Recent reports indicate Russia has sharply increased security around Putin, replacing over 1,000 personal staff members due to poisoning fears, underscoring the regime’s focus on his physical preservation[9]. While no immediate resignation is expected, any official announcement of removal before December 31, 2026, would instantly resolve this market to “Yes”, regardless of when the change formally takes effect.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV gambling rules and falls within US CFTC reach for prediction contracts, though its “no-KYC up to $1,500” feature enhances accessibility for traders avoiding identity verification. These compliance frameworks do not alter the underlying real-world probability but shape how the market is accessed and settled. The 10% probability reflects a consensus that Putin’s grip on power will persist through 2026, barring an unforeseen internal coup or health crisis[1][7][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.