Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
45% | 55% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
45% | 55% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kurt Kitayama | 45% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 42% |
| Tom Kim | 35% |
| Jake Knapp | 30% |
| Maverick McNealy | 25% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 24% |
| Keith Mitchell | 20% |
| Jackson Koivun | 20% |
| Corey Conners | 20% |
| Ben Kohles | 19% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 18% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 18% |
| Mac Meissner | 18% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 18% |
| Pierceson Coody | 17% |
| Jackson Suber | 17% |
| Doug Ghim | 17% |
| Benjamin James | 17% |
| Sam Stevens | 17% |
| Casey Jarvis | 17% |
| Taylor Moore | 17% |
| Max Homa | 16% |
| Johnny Keefer | 16% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 16% |
| Michael Kim | 16% |
| Brian Harman | 16% |
| Max McGreevy | 16% |
| Tony Finau | 15% |
| Gary Woodland | 14% |
| Michael Brennan | 14% |
| Max Greyserman | 14% |
| Davis Thompson | 14% |
| Ricky Castillo | 14% |
| Beau Hossler | 14% |
| John Parry | 14% |
| Andrew Putnam | 14% |
| Denny McCarthy | 14% |
| Zac Blair | 14% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 13% |
| William Mouw | 13% |
| Kevin Yu | 13% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 13% |
| Zach Bauchou | 13% |
| Keita Nakajima | 13% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 12% |
| Steven Fisk | 12% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 12% |
| Rico Hoey | 12% |
| Lee Hodges | 12% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 12% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 11% |
| Lucas Glover | 11% |
| Jesper Svensson | 11% |
| Seamus Power | 11% |
| Austin Smotherman | 11% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 11% |
| Tom Hoge | 11% |
| Kevin Roy | 11% |
| Joel Dahmen | 11% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 11% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 10% |
| Preston Stout | 10% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 10% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 10% |
| Billy Horschel | 10% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 10% |
| Matt Kuchar | 10% |
| Chris Kirk | 10% |
| Austin Eckroat | 10% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 9% |
| A.J. Ewart | 9% |
| Garrick Higgo | 9% |
| Chad Ramey | 9% |
| David Lipsky | 9% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 8% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 8% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 8% |
| Nick Dunlap | 8% |
| Karl Vilips | 8% |
| Neal Shipley | 8% |
| David Skinns | 8% |
| Aaron Wise | 8% |
| Chandler Phillips | 8% |
| Lanto Griffin | 8% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 7% |
| Luke Clanton | 7% |
| Trace Crowe | 7% |
| Mark Hubbard | 7% |
| Adam Hadwin | 7% |
| Ryder Cowan | 6% |
| Gordon Sargent | 6% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 6% |
| Hayden Springer | 6% |
| Harry Higgs | 6% |
| Vince Whaley | 6% |
| Luke List | 5% |
| Cameron Champ | 5% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 5% |
| S.Y. Noh | 1% |
| Jason Day | 0% |
Market context
The PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 prediction market currently prices this outcome at 45% YES. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 3M Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not anno…
Methodology
This overview of PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legal in California?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
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