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PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20

"PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20" — odds, fees, regulatory status. Is Kalshi Legal in California as a Polymarket alternative.

Kurt Kitayama 45% Scottie Scheffler 42% Tom Kim 35% Jake Knapp 30% Volume: $61K Liquidity: $120K Closes: 26 Jul 2026
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PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
45% 55% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
45% 55% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Kurt Kitayama45%
Scottie Scheffler42%
Tom Kim35%
Jake Knapp30%
Maverick McNealy25%
Hideki Matsuyama24%
Keith Mitchell20%
Jackson Koivun20%
Corey Conners20%
Ben Kohles19%
Jordan L. Smith18%
Sung-Jae Im18%
Mac Meissner18%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout18%
Pierceson Coody17%
Jackson Suber17%
Doug Ghim17%
Benjamin James17%
Sam Stevens17%
Casey Jarvis17%
Taylor Moore17%
Max Homa16%
Johnny Keefer16%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen16%
Michael Kim16%
Brian Harman16%
Max McGreevy16%
Tony Finau15%
Gary Woodland14%
Michael Brennan14%
Max Greyserman14%
Davis Thompson14%
Ricky Castillo14%
Beau Hossler14%
John Parry14%
Andrew Putnam14%
Denny McCarthy14%
Zac Blair14%
Sudarshan Yellamaraju13%
William Mouw13%
Kevin Yu13%
Mackenzie Hughes13%
Zach Bauchou13%
Keita Nakajima13%
Taylor Pendrith12%
Steven Fisk12%
Emiliano Grillo12%
Rico Hoey12%
Lee Hodges12%
Takumi Kanaya12%
Aldrich Potgieter11%
Lucas Glover11%
Jesper Svensson11%
Seamus Power11%
Austin Smotherman11%
Kristoffer Ventura11%
Tom Hoge11%
Kevin Roy11%
Joel Dahmen11%
Brandt Snedeker11%
Stephan Jaeger10%
Preston Stout10%
Hao-Tong Li10%
Thorbjorn Olesen10%
Billy Horschel10%
Ze-Cheng Dou10%
Matt Kuchar10%
Chris Kirk10%
Austin Eckroat10%
Patrick Fishburn9%
A.J. Ewart9%
Garrick Higgo9%
Chad Ramey9%
David Lipsky9%
Patrick Rodgers8%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart8%
Matthieu Pavon8%
Nick Dunlap8%
Karl Vilips8%
Neal Shipley8%
David Skinns8%
Aaron Wise8%
Chandler Phillips8%
Lanto Griffin8%
Erik Van Rooyen7%
Luke Clanton7%
Trace Crowe7%
Mark Hubbard7%
Adam Hadwin7%
Ryder Cowan6%
Gordon Sargent6%
Pontus Nyholm6%
Hayden Springer6%
Harry Higgs6%
Vince Whaley6%
Luke List5%
Cameron Champ5%
Jimmy Stanger5%
S.Y. Noh1%
Jason Day0%

Market context

The PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 prediction market currently prices this outcome at 45% YES. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 3M Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not anno…

Methodology

This overview of PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.
Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legal in California?
Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
What happens during a tax audit?
You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
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