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PGA Tour: 3M Open Winner

"PGA Tour: 3M Open Winner" — odds, fees, regulatory status. Is Kalshi Legal in California as a Polymarket alternative.

Jackson Koivun 53% Ben Kohles 11% Emiliano Grillo 10% Scottie Scheffler 7% Volume: $176K Liquidity: $934K Closes: 26 Jul 2026
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PGA Tour: 3M Open Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 53% 47% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 53% 47% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Jackson Koivun53%
Ben Kohles11%
Emiliano Grillo10%
Scottie Scheffler7%
Michael Brennan6%
Chandler Phillips3%
Michael Kim2%
Billy Horschel2%
Denny McCarthy2%
Kurt Kitayama1%
Hideki Matsuyama1%
Gary Woodland1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout1%
Davis Thompson1%
Kevin Yu1%
Brian Harman1%
Lee Hodges1%
Ze-Cheng Dou1%
Seamus Power1%
Austin Smotherman1%
Kevin Roy1%
Maverick McNealy0%
Keith Mitchell0%
Jake Knapp0%
Tom Kim0%
Pierceson Coody0%
Jackson Suber0%
Max Homa0%
Corey Conners0%
Jordan L. Smith0%
Doug Ghim0%
Sung-Jae Im0%
Benjamin James0%
Sam Stevens0%
Tony Finau0%
Sudarshan Yellamaraju0%
Johnny Keefer0%
Mac Meissner0%
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen0%
Jason Day0%
Max Greyserman0%
William Mouw0%
Aldrich Potgieter0%
Stephan Jaeger0%
Taylor Pendrith0%
Casey Jarvis0%
Ricky Castillo0%
Steven Fisk0%
Beau Hossler0%
Mackenzie Hughes0%
John Parry0%
Taylor Moore0%
Preston Stout0%
Max McGreevy0%
Lucas Glover0%
Hao-Tong Li0%
Thorbjorn Olesen0%
Andrew Putnam0%
Rico Hoey0%
Zach Bauchou0%
Keita Nakajima0%
Jesper Svensson0%
Patrick Rodgers0%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart0%
Matt Kuchar0%
Zac Blair0%
Ryder Cowan0%
Patrick Fishburn0%
Takumi Kanaya0%
Chris Kirk0%
A.J. Ewart0%
Kristoffer Ventura0%
Garrick Higgo0%
Austin Eckroat0%
Gordon Sargent0%
Tom Hoge0%
Chad Ramey0%
Erik Van Rooyen0%
Matthieu Pavon0%
Pontus Nyholm0%
Nick Dunlap0%
Karl Vilips0%
Neal Shipley0%
Luke Clanton0%
Joel Dahmen0%
David Skinns0%
Brandt Snedeker0%
Hayden Springer0%
Trace Crowe0%
David Lipsky0%
Aaron Wise0%
S.Y. Noh0%
Harry Higgs0%
Mark Hubbard0%
Luke List0%
Cameron Champ0%
Vince Whaley0%
Lanto Griffin0%
Adam Hadwin0%
Jimmy Stanger0%
Player 00%
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Player 80%
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Player 160%
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Player 180%
Player 190%
Other0%

Market context

Market consensus: 53% chance of pga tour: 3m open winner. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 3M Open tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the 3M Open tournament based on …

Methodology

This overview of PGA Tour: 3M Open Winner reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.
How are winnings taxed?
Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
What happens during a tax audit?
You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
Is there a withdrawal cap?
No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
What if regulation changes?
If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legal in California would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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