Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 100% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 0% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% |
| Sam Burns | 0% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 0% |
| Ricky Castillo | 0% |
| Bud Cauley | 0% |
| Wyndham Clark | 0% |
| Eric Cole | 0% |
| Corey Conners | 0% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0% |
| Harris English | 0% |
| Steven Fisk | 0% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 0% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 0% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 0% |
| Rickie Fowler | 0% |
| Ryan Fox | 0% |
| Ryan Gerard | 0% |
| Chris Gotterup | 0% |
| Ben Griffin | 0% |
| Harry Hall | 0% |
| Brian Harman | 0% |
| Russell Henley | 0% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% |
| Max Homa | 0% |
| Viktor Hovland | 0% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 0% |
| Michael Kim | 0% |
| Si Woo Kim | 0% |
| Tom Kim | 0% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0% |
| Jake Knapp | 0% |
| Jackson Koivun | 0% |
| Min Woo Lee | 0% |
| Shane Lowry | 0% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0% |
| Matt McCarty | 0% |
| Rory McIlroy | 0% |
| Maverick McNealy | 0% |
| Keith Mitchell | 0% |
| Collin Morikawa | 0% |
| Alexander Noren | 0% |
| JT Poston | 0% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 0% |
| Aaron Rai | 0% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 0% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0% |
| Justin Rose | 0% |
| Xander Schauffele | 0% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 0% |
| Matthias Schmid | 0% |
| Adam Scott | 0% |
| Alex Smalley | 0% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 0% |
| J.J. Spaun | 0% |
| Jordan Spieth | 0% |
| Sam Stevens | 0% |
| Sepp Straka | 0% |
| Nick Taylor | 0% |
| Sahith Theegala | 0% |
| Justin Thomas | 0% |
| Gary Woodland | 0% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0% |
| Cameron Young | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship First Round Leader. This market will resolve according to the player that finishes Round 1 of the main tournament at the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, t…
Methodology
This overview of PGA Tour: FedEx St. Jude Championship First Round Leader reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legal in California?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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