Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 38.5 | 95% |
| O/U 40.5 | 93% |
| O/U 44.5 | 90% |
| O/U 42.5 | 89% |
| O/U 46.5 | 88% |
| Spread -13.5 | 87% |
| Missouri State O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| Spread -19.5 | 83% |
| Spread -16.5 | 82% |
| Spread -17.5 | 81% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 81% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| O/U 48.5 | 79% |
| O/U 50.5 | 76% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 76% |
| Spread -20.5 | 75% |
| Missouri State O/U 9.5 | 72% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| O/U 52.5 | 70% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| Spread -23.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 67% |
| O/U 54.5 | 66% |
| Spread -25.5 | 63% |
| Spread -26.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| O/U 56.5 | 60% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 60% |
| Spread -27.5 | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| O/U 58.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 56% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 55% |
| Spread -28.5 | 54% |
| Spread -29.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Spread -30.5 | 52% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| O/U 60.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 1H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| SMU 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| SMU 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| SMU 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| SMU O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| SMU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Spread -31.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 48% |
| SMU O/U 46.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| O/U 62.5 | 45% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| Spread -32.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 43% |
| Spread -33.5 | 40% |
| Spread -34.5 | 40% |
| O/U 64.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 37% |
| Spread -35.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 37.5 | 36% |
| Spread -36.5 | 35% |
| Spread -37.5 | 33% |
| O/U 66.5 | 33% |
| 2Q O/U 23.5 | 31% |
| O/U 68.5 | 30% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 29% |
| Spread -38.5 | 28% |
| Spread -39.5 | 28% |
| Spread -40.5 | 27% |
| Spread -41.5 | 26% |
| O/U 70.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 22% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| O/U 72.5 | 20% |
| Spread -44.5 | 16% |
| Spread -42.5 | 14% |
| Spread -47.5 | 14% |
| O/U 74.5 | 13% |
| O/U 78.5 | 12% |
| Spread -48.5 | 11% |
| O/U 76.5 | 11% |
| Spread -50.5 | 8% |
| Spread -51.5 | 8% |
| Spread -54.5 | 6% |
| Missouri State vs. SMU | 2% |
Market context
Market consensus: 95% chance of missouri state vs. smu. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between Missouri State and SMU, scheduled for September 26 at 9:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Missouri State" if Missouri State win th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $155K.
Methodology
This overview of Missouri State vs. SMU reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legal in California would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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