Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots on target | 99% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots | 98% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots | 75% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 55% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 55% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots | 51% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 5+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| David Ospina: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Luis Díaz: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots | 34% |
| James Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ shots | 29% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Djibril Sow: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 22% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ assists | 12% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 9% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ assists | 5% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 match between Switzerland and Colombia, scheduled for 4:00 PM ET on 7 July at BC Place in Vancouver, where both squads remain unbeaten and the winner advances to face Argentina or Egypt[1][3]. This fixture features disciplined Swiss defence against a Colombian attack that has conceded only one goal in the tournament, with bookmakers favouring Colombia at +125 and setting the total goals line at 2.5[1][2].
Historical precedents from previous knockout rounds show that matches between unbeaten, defensively organised teams often settle under the total goals line, with expert picks currently leaning heavily toward Under 2.5 goals and a half-time draw[1][5]. Comparable cases from the 2022 and 2018 World Cups reveal that when two unbeaten sides meet in the Round of 16, the probability of a low-scoring affair rises significantly, framing the current 14% crowd-implied probability for specific player props as a conservative but plausible market reading[3][4].
Traders should monitor final lineup announcements for Luis Diaz, who holds +140 odds to score or assist including extra time, and Breel Embolo for Switzerland, as any late changes could shift player prop liquidity[3][9]. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 7 July, and regulatory accessibility is influenced by German GlüStV rules, US CFTC reach, and the 'no-KYC up to $1,500' threshold that permits broader participation for this specific market without identity verification[1][6]. Recent analysis from Action Network confirms Diaz as a key prop focus, while Dimers projects a 1-1 correct score as the most likely outcome, suggesting tight margins for player-specific bets[1][4].
Methodology
This overview of Switzerland vs. Colombia - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
Trade Switzerland vs. Colombia - Player Props on Is Kalshi Legal in California
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