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France vs. Sweden - Player Props

Regulatory snapshot for "France vs. Sweden - Player Props": platform geo-block status, KYC thresholds, tax implications.

Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots 94% Michael Olise: 1+ shots 92% Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots 79% Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target 77% Volume: $514K Liquidity: $1.7M Closes: 30 Jun 2026
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France vs. Sweden - Player Props

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
94% 6% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
94% 6% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots94%
Michael Olise: 1+ shots92%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots79%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target77%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots74%
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots74%
Alexander Isak: 1+ shots72%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists68%
Michael Olise: 2+ shots65%
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots65%
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots64%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots62%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals61%
Michael Olise: 3+ shots60%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots56%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots55%
Alexander Isak: 2+ shots54%
Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots51%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target50%
Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target50%
Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target50%
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target50%
Désiré Doué: 2+ shots50%
Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists50%
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists50%
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists50%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals + assists50%
Alexander Isak: 4+ shots on target50%
Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target50%
Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots on target50%
Marcus Thuram: 1+ shots on target50%
Marcus Thuram: 2+ shots on target50%
Marcus Thuram: 3+ shots on target50%
Marcus Thuram: 4+ shots on target50%
Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target50%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target50%
Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots on target50%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target50%
Mike Maignan: 2+ saves50%
Mike Maignan: 3+ saves50%
Mike Maignan: 4+ saves50%
Mike Maignan: 5+ saves50%
Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots50%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ shots on target50%
Alexander Isak: 3+ shots on target50%
Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target50%
Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists49%
Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists49%
Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target49%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ shots on target49%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ shots on target49%
Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots on target49%
Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots on target49%
Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target49%
Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots on target49%
Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots on target49%
Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target49%
Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target48%
Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists48%
Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists48%
Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists47%
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals + assists47%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots on target47%
Viktor Johansson: 2+ saves47%
Viktor Johansson: 4+ saves47%
Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target47%
Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target47%
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots on target47%
Alexander Isak: 2+ shots on target47%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target47%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target47%
Théo Hernández: 1+ shots on target47%
Théo Hernández: 2+ shots on target47%
Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists46%
Viktor Johansson: 3+ saves46%
Viktor Johansson: 5+ saves46%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ shots on target46%
Rayan Cherki: 2+ shots43%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists41%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals41%
Manu Koné: 1+ shots40%
Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target40%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target40%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists36%
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target36%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists33%
Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots33%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals32%
Manu Koné: 2+ shots32%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists31%
Michael Olise: 4+ shots31%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists30%
Théo Hernández: 1+ shots30%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots on target30%
Alexander Isak: 1+ shots on target30%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists28%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists28%
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots28%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals26%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists26%
Rayan Cherki: 3+ shots26%
Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots26%
Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists25%
Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots24%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists24%
Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target24%
Alexander Isak: 3+ shots23%
Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ shots23%
Rayan Cherki: 4+ shots23%
Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots23%
Alexander Isak: 3+ goals + assists21%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists21%
Théo Hernández: 2+ shots21%
Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target21%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots21%
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals + assists20%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists20%
Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists20%
Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists20%
Rayan Cherki: 5+ shots20%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals20%
Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots20%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target19%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists19%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals18%
Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists18%
Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots18%
Théo Hernández: 3+ shots18%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals17%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals17%
Théo Hernández: 4+ shots17%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals + assists16%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals + assists16%
Michael Olise: 5+ shots16%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots16%
Michael Olise: 2+ assists15%
Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists15%
Désiré Doué: 1+ assists14%
Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists13%
Maghnes Akliouche: 5+ shots13%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists13%
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target13%
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists11%
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals11%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals11%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists10%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists9%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals8%
Manu Koné: 1+ assists8%
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists8%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists8%
Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists8%
Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists8%
Alexander Isak: 4+ shots8%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots8%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals7%
Manu Koné: 1+ goals7%
Théo Hernández: 1+ assists7%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals7%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists6%
Désiré Doué: 3+ shots6%
Michael Olise: 2+ goals6%
Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists5%
Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists5%
Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ goals5%
Théo Hernández: 1+ goals5%
Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals5%
Alexander Isak: 5+ shots5%
Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists4%
Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists4%
Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists4%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists4%
Désiré Doué: 2+ assists4%
Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals4%
Manu Koné: 3+ shots4%
Alexander Isak: 2+ assists3%
Manu Koné: 2+ assists3%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ assists3%
Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ shots3%
Marcus Thuram: 2+ goals3%
Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals3%
Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals3%
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals3%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals3%
Viktor Gyökeres: 5+ shots3%
Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target2%
Désiré Doué: 2+ goals2%
Théo Hernández: 2+ assists2%
Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists2%
Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists2%
Désiré Doué: 4+ shots2%
Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals2%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals2%
Alexander Isak: 2+ goals2%
Manu Koné: 2+ goals2%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goals2%
Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ shots2%
Manu Koné: 4+ shots2%
Désiré Doué: 3+ goals1%
Michael Olise: 3+ goals1%
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ goals1%
Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals1%
Marcus Thuram: 1+ goals1%
Alexander Isak: 3+ goals1%
Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals1%
Théo Hernández: 2+ goals1%
Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals1%
Désiré Doué: 5+ shots1%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 94% YES probability for France vs. Sweden - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Sweden, scheduled for June 30 at 5:00 PM ET.

Methodology

This overview of France vs. Sweden - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

How are winnings taxed?
Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
Is there a withdrawal cap?
No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
What if regulation changes?
If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legal in California would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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