Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 100% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 99% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 93% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 92% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 82% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 74% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 60% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 58% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 55% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 18% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 14% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The United States vs. Belgium - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Belgium, scheduled for July 6 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of United States vs. Belgium - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legal in California would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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