Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 77% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino | 76% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 3 Winner | 69% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 1 Winner | 67% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 2 Winner | 67% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 62% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Game Spread +/-5.5 | 52% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Match O/U 36.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Match O/U 38.5 | 47% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Match O/U 40.5 | 42% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 36% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 23% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 77% probability to us open atp: alexander bublik vs adrian mannarino. This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Bublik and Adrian Mannarino in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexand…
Methodology
This overview of US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legal in California?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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