Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 28.5 | 94% |
| O/U 30.5 | 90% |
| O/U 32.5 | 86% |
| O/U 34.5 | 83% |
| O/U 36.5 | 81% |
| O/U 38.5 | 76% |
| Texas O/U 18.5 | 75% |
| Ohio State O/U 18.5 | 74% |
| Ohio State O/U 17.5 | 74% |
| Texas O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| Ohio State O/U 20.5 | 66% |
| O/U 44.5 | 63% |
| Texas O/U 21.5 | 63% |
| Ohio State O/U 21.5 | 62% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| Texas O/U 22.5 | 61% |
| O/U 46.5 | 60% |
| O/U 47.5 | 57% |
| Texas O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Bo Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 56% |
| Ohio State O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| O/U 48.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| O/U 49.5 | 53% |
| Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Spread: Texas (-1.5) | 52% |
| Ohio State O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 52% |
| Devin McCuin: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Isaiah West: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Michael Masunas: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Texas 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Chris Henry Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brandon Inniss: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Derrek Cooper: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Julian Sayin: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sterling Berkhalter: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| James Simon: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nate Roberts: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mason Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hunter Welcing: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kyle Parker: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Townsend: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brock Boyd: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Texas O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 49% |
| 1H Moneyline | 49% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 49% |
| Texas O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| Ohio State O/U 24.5 | 48% |
| Texas 1H O/U 15.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Ohio State vs. Texas | 47% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| Ohio State O/U 26.5 | 44% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| O/U 52.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Texas O/U 27.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| Ohio State O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| Ohio State O/U 27.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| Texas O/U 28.5 | 37% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| O/U 56.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| Texas O/U 30.5 | 32% |
| Ohio State O/U 29.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| O/U 58.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| Jeremiah Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 29% |
| Ohio State O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| O/U 60.5 | 26% |
| Texas O/U 31.5 | 26% |
| Hollywood Smothers: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| O/U 62.5 | 23% |
| Arch Manning: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Ryan Wingo: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Cam Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| Spread -34.5 | 21% |
| O/U 64.5 | 20% |
| Raleek Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 17% |
| Ja'Kobi Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 17% |
| Spread -27.5 | 16% |
| Spread -11.5 | 16% |
| O/U 66.5 | 15% |
| Legend Bey: Anytime Touchdown | 15% |
| O/U 68.5 | 14% |
| Emmett Mosley V: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| Spread -12.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -24.5 | 13% |
| Spread -12.5 | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -31.5 | 10% |
| Spread -15.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -15.5 | 6% |
| Spread -18.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| Spread -18.5 | 5% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -22.5 | 5% |
Market context
The Ohio State vs. Texas prediction market currently prices this outcome at 94% YES. In the upcoming college football game between Ohio State and Texas, scheduled for September 12 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Ohio State" if Ohio State win the game. This market will resol…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $139K.
Methodology
This overview of Ohio State vs. Texas reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legal in California would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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