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MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)

"MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)" — odds, fees, regulatory status. Is Kalshi Legal in California as a Polymarket alternative.

Team A 50% Team B 50% Team C 50% Team D 50% Volume: $106K Liquidity: $13K Closes: 11 Oct 2026
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MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
50% 50% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
50% 50% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Team A50%
Team B50%
Team C50%
Team D50%
Team E50%
Other50%
Chicago White Sox37%
Cleveland Guardians37%
Milwaukee Brewers37%
Pittsburgh Pirates37%
Toronto Blue Jays37%
Washington Nationals37%
Arizona Diamondbacks36%
Cincinnati Reds36%
Houston Astros36%
Miami Marlins36%
Seattle Mariners32%
Atlanta Braves31%
Los Angeles Dodgers6%
Colorado Rockies3%
Kansas City Royals3%
Los Angeles Angels3%
New York Yankees3%
Tampa Bay Rays3%
Texas Rangers3%
Boston Red Sox2%
Chicago Cubs2%
Minnesota Twins2%
Philadelphia Phillies2%
Baltimore Orioles1%
Detroit Tigers1%
New York Mets1%
Athletics1%
San Diego Padres1%
St. Louis Cardinals1%
San Francisco Giants0%

Market context

The MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team) prediction market currently prices this outcome at 50% YES. This market will resolve according to the team that records the highest ABS challenge won% during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If two teams tie for the highest ABS challenge won%, this market will re…

Methodology

This overview of MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team) reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.
How are winnings taxed?
Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
Is there a withdrawal cap?
No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
and

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