Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is an MLB game between the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers scheduled for 26 June at 6:40PM ET, where the market resolves to the winner. Historical precedents show that when a team loses a series opener decisively, such as the Tigers’ 8–0 defeat to the Astros on 26 June, crowd-implied probabilities often collapse to near zero for the losing side in the immediate rematch[3]. This mirrors cases where a -118 favourite on the money line fails to cover, causing traders to reprice the next game’s outcome based on momentum rather than static odds[1].

Traders should monitor pitcher rotation announcements, injury updates, and weather dependencies before the 27 June game, as these factors directly influence performance volatility[2]. Recent coverage highlights that starting pitchers Tatsuya Imai and Troy Melton dominated the opener, suggesting their availability for the next contest is a critical catalyst[2]. No-KYC thresholds up to $1,500 mean this market remains accessible to retail participants without identity verification, though German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks still impose regulatory limits on cross-border trading activity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.