Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 56% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 38% |
| New York Yankees | 26% |
| Atlanta Braves | 17% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 17% |
| San Diego Padres | 15% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 10% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 8% |
| Chicago Cubs | 6% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 5% |
| Texas Rangers | 5% |
| Chicago White Sox | 4% |
| Seattle Mariners | 4% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 3% |
| Houston Astros | 3% |
| Miami Marlins | 3% |
| Minnesota Twins | 3% |
| Washington Nationals | 3% |
| Boston Red Sox | 2% |
| San Francisco Giants | 2% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1% |
| Detroit Tigers | 1% |
| Kansas City Royals | 1% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1% |
| New York Mets | 1% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 0% |
| Athletics | 0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, mlb: team to win 100+ games stands at 56% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB regular season. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any po…
Methodology
This overview of MLB: Team to win 100+ games reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legal in California?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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