Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-4.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-4.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-5.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-6.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-5.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-7.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+7.5) | 91% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-6.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 53% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-7.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+7.5) | 52% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 52% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-4.5) vs Evil Geniuses (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: EG (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: evil geniuses vs leviatán esports (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 group alpha stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Evil Geniuses and Leviatán Esports in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 23 at 5:00PM ET. This mar…
Methodology
This overview of Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legal in California would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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