PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the WNBA match between the Portland Fire and Chicago Sky on 26 June 2026, which has already concluded with the Sky winning 124–94. Kamilla Cardoso set a WNBA record by shooting 13 for 13 from the field, scoring a career-high 30 points to lead the Chicago Sky to victory[2][5]. This definitive result explains the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a Portland Fire win, as the game outcome is no longer uncertain.

Historically, prediction markets for completed sporting events resolve immediately once the final score is confirmed, rendering any pre-game probability estimates obsolete. Comparable cases from recent WNBA seasons show that markets do not reopen after a game finishes unless a formal postponement or cancellation occurs before the final whistle[3]. Given the game ended on 26 June with a clear winner, the 0% probability reflects the settled nature of the event rather than a speculative forecast.

Traders should monitor official WNBA announcements regarding potential game cancellations or make-up scenarios, though none are expected for this fixture. Recent coverage confirms the match was played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse with no interruptions, and highlights are now available for public review[1][7]. The regulatory context includes German GlüStV implications for betting accessibility, US CFTC reach over market oversight, and the 'no-KYC up to $1,500' threshold, which allows immediate participation for this resolved market without identity verification.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.