Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Team A | 50% |
| Team B | 50% |
| Team C | 50% |
| Team D | 50% |
| Team E | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| Chicago White Sox | 37% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 37% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 37% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 37% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 37% |
| Washington Nationals | 37% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 36% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 36% |
| Houston Astros | 36% |
| Miami Marlins | 36% |
| Seattle Mariners | 32% |
| Atlanta Braves | 31% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 6% |
| Colorado Rockies | 3% |
| Kansas City Royals | 3% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 3% |
| New York Yankees | 3% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 3% |
| Texas Rangers | 3% |
| Boston Red Sox | 2% |
| Chicago Cubs | 2% |
| Minnesota Twins | 2% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 2% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1% |
| Detroit Tigers | 1% |
| New York Mets | 1% |
| Athletics | 1% |
| San Diego Padres | 1% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1% |
| San Francisco Giants | 0% |
Market context
The MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team) prediction market currently prices this outcome at 50% YES. This market will resolve according to the team that records the highest ABS challenge won% during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If two teams tie for the highest ABS challenge won%, this market will re…
Methodology
This overview of MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team) reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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