Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 211.5 | 83% |
| O/U 214.5 | 76% |
| O/U 217.5 | 72% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 220.5 | 66% |
| O/U 222.5 | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| O/U 223.5 | 60% |
| O/U 225.5 | 56% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 4.5 | 55% |
| Spread -4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 226.5 | 54% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| O/U 227.5 | 53% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 3.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 51% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| O/U 228.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Amen Thompson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Stephon Castle: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Blocks O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Devin Vassell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Dylan Harper: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Marcus Smart: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 48% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Assists O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| O/U 230.5 | 46% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 43% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 42% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 9.5 | 42% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| O/U 233.5 | 39% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 14.5 | 38% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 38% |
| Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 37% |
| Rockets vs. Spurs | 36% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 36% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 | 35% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 | 34% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 23.5 | 33% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Devin Vassell: Assists O/U 2.5 | 33% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 236.5 | 32% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 32% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 | 32% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -12.5 | 28% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 4.5 | 28% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 18.5 | 27% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 27% |
| Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| O/U 239.5 | 26% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 | 26% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 26% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Marcus Smart: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5 | 23% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 23% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 22% |
| Spread -15.5 | 21% |
| Fred VanVleet: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Devin Vassell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 7.5 | 20% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Victor Wembanyama: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Steals O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 29.5 | 17% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 17% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5 | 17% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Spread -18.5 | 16% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 29.5 | 16% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: Points O/U 24.5 | 14% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Stephon Castle: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| De'Aaron Fox: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 13% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 9.5 | 12% |
| Dylan Harper: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Fred VanVleet: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 14.5 | 12% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 24.5 | 11% |
| Dylan Harper: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Fred VanVleet: Assists O/U 11.5 | 11% |
| Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| Dylan Harper: Points O/U 24.5 | 10% |
| Fred VanVleet: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 34.5 | 10% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 39.5 | 10% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 11.5 | 10% |
| Amen Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 9% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 39.5 | 9% |
| Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 9% |
| Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Julian Champagnie: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| Devin Vassell: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Kevin Durant: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 7.5 | 8% |
| Kevin Durant: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 29.5 | 7% |
| De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 24.5 | 7% |
| Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 83% YES probability for Rockets vs. Spurs. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 9:30PM ET: If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets". If the Spurs win, the market will resolve to "Spurs". If the game is postpone…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $93K.
Methodology
This overview of Rockets vs. Spurs reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legal in California?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2214%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2236%22%20height%3D%228%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%237c3aed%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%237c3aed%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%237c3aed%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%237c3aed%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Rockets vs. Spurs on Is Kalshi Legal in California
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →