Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 91.5 | 95% |
| 1Q O/U 42.5 | 94% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 9.5 | 93% |
| 1H O/U 93.5 | 93% |
| O/U 201.5 | 92% |
| 1Q O/U 44.5 | 92% |
| O/U 203.5 | 90% |
| 1H O/U 95.5 | 90% |
| Mavericks O/U 100.5 | 90% |
| O/U 205.5 | 89% |
| 1Q O/U 46.5 | 87% |
| Pacers O/U 98.5 | 87% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 86% |
| Mavericks O/U 102.5 | 86% |
| O/U 207.5 | 85% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 85% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 3.5 | 85% |
| Pacers O/U 100.5 | 85% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 97.5 | 84% |
| O/U 209.5 | 83% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 83% |
| Mavericks O/U 104.5 | 82% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 9.5 | 81% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 14.5 | 81% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 81% |
| O/U 211.5 | 80% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 80% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 80% |
| 1H O/U 99.5 | 80% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 79% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 14.5 | 78% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| O/U 213.5 | 77% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| Mavericks O/U 106.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 101.5 | 76% |
| Pacers O/U 102.5 | 76% |
| O/U 215.5 | 74% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 19.5 | 74% |
| 2Q O/U 48.5 | 73% |
| Pacers O/U 104.5 | 73% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 9.5 | 72% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 50.5 | 72% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 71% |
| Mavericks O/U 108.5 | 71% |
| O/U 217.5 | 69% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 68% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 68% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 68% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 67% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 67% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 66% |
| Pacers O/U 106.5 | 66% |
| O/U 219.5 | 65% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 65% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 1.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 65% |
| Mavericks O/U 110.5 | 65% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 52.5 | 65% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 5.5 | 63% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 2.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 63% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 63% |
| 4Q O/U 53.5 | 63% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 9.5 | 62% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| O/U 221.5 | 61% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | 61% |
| Spread -1.5 | 60% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 5.5 | 60% |
| Pacers O/U 108.5 | 60% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 19.5 | 59% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 58% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 58% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 9.5 | 57% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 19.5 | 57% |
| O/U 222.5 | 57% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| Mavericks O/U 112.5 | 57% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 223.5 | 56% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 56% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5 | 55% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 54.5 | 55% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 49.5 | 55% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 14.5 | 54% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 9.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 54% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 51.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 53.5 | 54% |
| O/U 224.5 | 54% |
| Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| Pacers O/U 110.5 | 52% |
| O/U 225.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 53.5 | 51% |
| Mavericks O/U 114.5 | 51% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 55.5 | 51% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 4.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 49% |
| O/U 226.5 | 49% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 48% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 48% |
| O/U 227.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 47% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 55.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 64.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 47% |
| Pacers O/U 111.5 | 47% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 46% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 57.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 46% |
| Spread -5.5 | 45% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 45% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 56.5 | 45% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 43% |
| Pacers O/U 112.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 43% |
| Mavericks O/U 116.5 | 43% |
| O/U 229.5 | 42% |
| Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 42% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| 1H Moneyline | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Pacers vs. Mavericks | 40% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 40% |
| Mavericks O/U 118.5 | 40% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| O/U 231.5 | 38% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 38% |
| Pacers O/U 114.5 | 38% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 36% |
| Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 36% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 58.5 | 36% |
| O/U 233.5 | 34% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -9.5 | 33% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 24.5 | 33% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5 | 33% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 0.5 | 33% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 14.5 | 32% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 7.5 | 32% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 21.5 | 31% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 15.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 31% |
| Mavericks O/U 120.5 | 31% |
| O/U 235.5 | 30% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5 | 30% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| Pacers O/U 116.5 | 30% |
| Pacers 1H O/U 54.5 | 30% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 25.5 | 29% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -11.5 | 28% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 24.5 | 28% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 60.5 | 28% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 20.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| O/U 237.5 | 26% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 14.5 | 26% |
| Pacers O/U 118.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 26% |
| Mavericks O/U 122.5 | 26% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 25% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 5.5 | 25% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| O/U 239.5 | 23% |
| Spread -13.5 | 23% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 29.5 | 22% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 21% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 21% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 62.5 | 21% |
| Pacers O/U 120.5 | 21% |
| O/U 241.5 | 20% |
| Spread -8.5 | 20% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 20% |
| Mavericks O/U 124.5 | 20% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Spread -15.5 | 18% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| O/U 243.5 | 17% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 17% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 17% |
| Pacers O/U 122.5 | 17% |
| Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 16% |
| O/U 245.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 14% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| 1Q O/U 64.5 | 14% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| O/U 247.5 | 12% |
| Spread -12.5 | 12% |
| Obi Toppin: Points O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 12% |
| Spread -19.5 | 11% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 11% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Cooper Flagg: Steals O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| O/U 249.5 | 10% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| Daniel Gafford: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Daniel Gafford: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 10% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| O/U 251.5 | 9% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 11.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 7.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 9% |
| Kyrie Irving: Steals O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 66.5 | 9% |
| Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 19.5 | 8% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 34.5 | 8% |
| Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 8% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 8% |
| Pascal Siakam: Steals O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| Spread -23.5 | 7% |
| Spread -25.5 | 7% |
| Obi Toppin: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 7% |
| Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 19.5 | 7% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Steals O/U 2.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 7% |
| Kyrie Irving: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| O/U 253.5 | 6% |
| Spread -18.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -27.5 | 6% |
| Spread -22.5 | 6% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 6% |
| Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| O/U 255.5 | 5% |
| O/U 257.5 | 5% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 34.5 | 5% |
| Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 5% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 11.5 | 5% |
| Andrew Nembhard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 5% |
| Aaron Nesmith: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -29.5 | 4% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 39.5 | 4% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 24.5 | 4% |
| Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 19.5 | 4% |
| P.J. Washington: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| Obi Toppin: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -24.5 | 3% |
| Spread -31.5 | 3% |
| Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 7.5 | 3% |
| Pascal Siakam: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Cooper Flagg: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 3% |
Market context
The Pacers vs. Mavericks prediction market currently prices this outcome at 95% YES. In the upcoming NBA game between Pacers and Mavericks, originally scheduled for Monday, November 9, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If the Pacers win, the…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $384K.
Methodology
This overview of Pacers vs. Mavericks reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legal in California would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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