Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 71% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots | 68% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ shots on target | 67% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 61% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 55% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 53% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dean Henderson: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ollie Watkins: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots on target | 46% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on target | 46% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots on target | 46% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ shots on target | 46% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Dean Henderson: 5+ saves | 44% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 38% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 21% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots on target | 19% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Marcus Rashford: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 2+ saves | 11% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 4+ saves | 11% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Dean Henderson: 4+ saves | 10% |
| Timothy Fayulu: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ollie Watkins: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 9% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Ivan Toney: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Ivan Toney: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots on target | 7% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ivan Toney: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ollie Watkins: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Morgan Rogers: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ shots on target | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Toney: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
England vs. DR Congo - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 91%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between England and DR Congo, scheduled for July 1 at 12:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of England vs. DR Congo - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legal in California?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legal in California would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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