Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Winner | 82% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 61% |
| Match Winner | 57% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 52% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map Handicap: AG.AL (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 41% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs AG.AL International (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Valorant Decider match between MIBR LOS and AG.AL International in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 7 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "M…
Methodology
This overview of Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legal in California?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
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