Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs All Gamers (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-3.5) vs Team Heretics (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-4.5) vs Team Heretics (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs All Gamers (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs All Gamers (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs All Gamers (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-7.5) vs AG.AL International (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-6.5) vs Team Heretics (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-5.5) vs Team Heretics (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-7.5) vs Team Heretics (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: team heretics vs all gamers (bo3) - esports world cup group d stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Team Heretics and All Gamers in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 3 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
This overview of Valorant: Team Heretics vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legal in California would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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