Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s highest temperature today will be set by conditions at Gimhae International Airport, the official station used for settlement, so the key question is whether the afternoon heat pushes the Daily Observations maximum into the 30°C-plus bands. Current forecasts cluster around the mid-to-high 20s to mid-30s Celsius in the city, with AccuWeather and Timeanddate both pointing to a warm, humid day and some thunderstorm risk early on[12][15].

The 0% implied probability is best read as a stale or non-functional market price rather than a meaningful forecast. August is Busan’s warmest month on climate averages, with typical highs around 84–87°F and daily maxima often near 30°C, while historical climate summaries note occasional hotter spikes into the mid-30s Celsius[10][11][19]. That means the distribution is naturally centred in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, making any very low price hard to reconcile with the underlying weather regime.

For traders, the main catalysts are the morning forecast updates, thunderstorm timing, cloud cover, and whether sea-breeze effects limit inland warming before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Recent regional reporting shows South Korea is in an exceptional heat episode, with authorities warning of dangerous conditions as temperatures have climbed into the high 30s and above in parts of the south, which can support upside risk if the hot air mass reaches Busan[8]. On accessibility, German GlüStV can matter because it may restrict or require local compliance for gambling-like products, US CFTC reach can apply where a market is treated as a derivatives-style contract, and “no-KYC up to $1,500” generally means small-value access with lighter identity checks until cumulative activity crosses that threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Busan on August 10? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

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