Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience its peak daytime heat on 16 July 2026 at the Shuangliu International Airport station, with the market betting on which Celsius range captures that maximum. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the listed range, likely reflecting Chengdu’s typical mid-July highs of 30–35°C, though extreme spikes above 37°C have occurred in recent years.

Historical weather records from Wunderground show Chengdu’s July maxima rarely breach 38°C, with the last notable extreme in 2022 reaching 37.4°C at Shuangliu; this pattern frames the 0% probability as a rational assessment rather than an anomaly, given the settlement relies on a single-day peak rather than a seasonal average.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s 72-hour forecast issued 13 July, which typically flags heatwave conditions, and watch for any sudden shifts in the East Asian monsoon that could suppress temperatures. Regulatory access remains constrained by German GlüStV licensing requirements for EU users and US CFTC oversight for American participants, though the platform’s “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows casual traders to access this weather market without identity verification, provided they stay under the limit and comply with local jurisdiction rules.

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

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FAQ

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