Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 25 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of a prediction market currently implying zero probability for a specific outcome. Historical data frames this near-zero probability as highly questionable given Hong Kong’s long-term warming trend, where June temperatures have consistently risen above normal levels in recent years[1]. Recent records show the city hitting 34.6°C in mid-2026, marking the hottest day of the year so far and contradicting any assumption that extreme heat is impossible in late June[6]. Forecast models for June 2026 predict daily highs between 30°C and 33.7°C, with AccuWeather estimating averages near 32°C, reinforcing that high temperatures are typical rather than anomalous[2][4].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s finalised “Daily Extract” for the specified date, as the market cannot resolve until this official data is published[9]. Key catalysts include the release of the Monthly Forecast for July 2026, expected around 1 July, which may provide context on ENSO status and temperature anomalies influencing late June conditions[1][9]. Recent news from the South China Morning Post highlights the city’s susceptibility to extreme heat, with hail warnings issued alongside record temperatures, suggesting that weather volatility remains a critical dependency[6]. The regulatory landscape further shapes accessibility: German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach mean that platforms offering “no-KYC up to $1,500” allow broader participation for this market, though users must remain aware of jurisdictional limits without this constituting legal advice.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.