Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daily temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 27 June 2026, specifically the absolute maximum in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the "YES" outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range. This low probability aligns with the seasonal forecast indicating above-normal temperatures for Hong Kong during June through August 2026, with daily highs historically ranging between 29°C and 35°C in recent years, including a record of 34.6°C earlier this year[1][5].

Historical precedents show that June 20 is typically the warmest day in Hong Kong, averaging 29.7°C, yet extreme heat events have pushed temperatures to 37°C in the New Territories during recent warnings[4][8]. The current 0% probability may reflect a misreading of these comparable cases, as traders might underestimate the likelihood of a heat spike on 27 June despite the forecasted above-normal trend. Recent news confirms Hong Kong has already experienced its hottest day of the year so far, reinforcing the potential for elevated temperatures in late June[5].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s updated seasonal forecasts and any imminent extreme heat warnings, particularly given the ENSO status influencing climate models[1]. Key catalysts include the release of the finalized "Daily Extract" data for 27 June, which is the sole resolution source, and any official announcements regarding heat advisories in the Pearl River Delta region[7]. Accessibility for this market is shaped by regulatory frameworks: German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach may limit participation, while "no-KYC up to $1,500" provisions could enable broader access for traders under specific jurisdictional exemptions, provided they comply with local tax and KYC requirements.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.