Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will determine the settlement outcome of this market. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—not the Day High & Low summary—will serve as the authoritative resolution source, with measurements in degrees Fahrenheit. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating the outcome as highly uncertain given the distance to settlement and inherent volatility of summer weather forecasting.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, daily highs in mid-August ranged from 77°F to 95°F, with an average around 82–84°F. The 0% probability reflects the typical difficulty of predicting specific temperature ranges months in advance rather than any meteorological certainty. Comparable weather prediction markets on similar timeframes have seen probabilities cluster around moderate ranges until seasonal patterns emerge within 7–10 days of the event date.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction and stake size. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets operating without a licence face restrictions on marketing to German residents. US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives-like instruments, though small-stake weather markets often fall outside active enforcement. The 'no-KYC up to $1,500' threshold—common across many platforms—means traders can participate in this specific market without identity verification if their total exposure remains below that limit, though platform-specific terms vary. Traders should verify their local regulatory environment and the host platform's compliance posture before committing capital.

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in NYC on August 13? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legal in California?

Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.

How are winnings taxed?

Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.

Can I trade anonymously?

Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.

Are prediction markets gambling?

Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).