Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the peak daytime heat recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit by Weather Underground. Historical data from similar June dates in New York shows daily highs consistently clustering between 82°F and 84°F, with the 24 June 2026 market resolving to 82–83°F at 100% certainty[1][2]. The 26 June 2026 actual climatological report confirms a maximum of 84°F[4], making the current 0% probability for lower ranges a reflection of established seasonal norms rather than an anomaly.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological releases for LaGuardia, which provide the definitive settlement figure, and watch for any sudden shifts in regional humidity or wind patterns that could alter peak temperatures[4][8]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 indicate highs ranging from 77°F to 92°F, suggesting the 82–83°F range remains the most probable outcome[5]. No regulatory announcements are expected to impact this specific weather market, but the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 26 June ensures data from Weather Underground is the sole resolution source[3].

From a regulatory perspective, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define the legal boundaries for such prediction markets, though the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold significantly enhances accessibility for individual traders in this climate event[1]. This accessibility allows direct participation without identity verification for stakes under the limit, aligning with current US and EU frameworks for low-risk weather derivatives. The market’s structure remains compliant with standard climate prediction protocols, ensuring transparent resolution based on verified meteorological data.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.