Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the highest temperature recorded at San Francisco International Airport on 10 August 2026, with resolution tied to the Weather Underground **Daily Observations** table rather than any summary high/low display. Official airport climate reporting for San Francisco typically places August maximums around the low 70s Fahrenheit, and the climate normal maximum for 10 August is 73°F, which makes the current 0% implied probability of a very low outcome consistent with a market that is already effectively anchored to a warm, near-normal summer day rather than an extreme.[4][8][13]

For framing, comparable August readings in San Francisco usually sit in a tight band, and recent history shows highs around the upper 60s to mid-70s rather than large deviations.[1][2][5] The practical read-through is that the market is less about broad seasonal uncertainty and more about whether the final reported airport observation lands in the same temperature bucket as the consensus daytime peak, with the resolution mechanics making the exact source table more important than headline app summaries.[3][10][11]

From a regulatory and access perspective, a market of this kind sits in a grey zone for users depending on jurisdiction: German GlüStV rules can treat online betting-style participation as legally sensitive, while US CFTC reach remains relevant where a contract may resemble a commodity derivative or event contract. A “no-KYC up to $1,500” model typically means small deposits or withdrawals may be available with lighter identity checks, but accessibility can still depend on payment rails, geoblocking, and the platform’s own compliance filters; for this specific market, that mainly affects who can enter at modest size, not how the temperature outcome is settled.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.

Do I need to KYC for Is Kalshi Legal in California?

Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.

What happens during a tax audit?

You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.

Are prediction markets gambling?

Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

What if regulation changes?

If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legal in California would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.