Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date that sits at the very start of South Korea’s monsoon season. Historical data shows Seoul’s June highs typically range between 18°C and 29°C, with averages near 27°C, and the monsoon usually brings increased humidity and rain from late June onward, often suppressing extreme heat spikes. Given that the crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome is 0%, the market likely defines “YES” as a temperature exceeding a threshold far above the historical norm—perhaps 35°C or higher—which has not occurred in Seoul during June in recent decades, making such an event statistically negligible.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and Wunderground’s daily updates for Incheon, as the onset of monsoon rains can rapidly alter temperature trajectories. A recent forecast from AccuWeather indicates daily highs in Seoul for June 2026 will likely stay between 89°F and 91°F (32°C–33°C), well below extreme thresholds, reinforcing the 0% probability. Additionally, watch for any official announcements regarding heatwave alerts or unusual atmospheric conditions, though none are currently expected.

From a regulatory angle, German GlüStV and US CFTC rules govern prediction market accessibility, but the “no-KYC up to $1,500” clause allows traders in many jurisdictions to participate without identity verification, provided they stay under the limit. This specific market remains accessible to most users without compliance hurdles, as the settlement window ends in 2026 and the event is purely meteorological, not tied to financial or political outcomes that would trigger stricter oversight.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.