Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying event is the daily maximum temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Historical data for June at this station shows daily highs typically ranging from 25°C to 30°C, with averages near 28°C, rarely dropping below 21°C or exceeding 33°C[1][7]. Recent prediction markets on Shanghai temperatures in late June, such as the 25 June 2026 event, settled around 25–27°C, influenced by the East Asian monsoon and ongoing meiyu (plum rain) season[2]. The current 0% YES probability for the highest temperature likely reflects a specific threshold in the market’s resolution ranges that is statistically improbable given these consistent historical patterns, not an expectation of freezing conditions.

Traders should monitor the official release of the Shanghai meteorological bureau’s daily summary for 27 June, which may be delayed by up to 24 hours, and watch for any sudden shifts in the meiyu front that could suppress temperatures below 25°C[8]. A recent report from AccuWeather forecasts daily highs between 26°C and 30°C for Shanghai Pudong in late June 2026, reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures within the 25–30°C band[4]. Regulatory accessibility hinges on jurisdiction: German GlüStV rules may restrict participation for residents without KYC verification, while US CFTC reach applies to platforms offering unregistered derivatives, though some platforms allow “no-KYC up to $1,500” for low-risk weather markets, enhancing accessibility for casual traders in this specific context. This tiered approach means the market remains open to a broader audience despite stricter compliance frameworks elsewhere.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.