Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 August 2026, Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. This market resolves to the temperature band containing the highest reading from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the granular station data rather than the summary high-low figures. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date, locking in whichever range captures the peak measurement from the primary source.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that heat will be absent. August in Tokyo typically peaks between 32–35°C, with occasional excursions above 36°C during heat waves. Historical August records at Haneda span from roughly 28°C to 37°C depending on Pacific high-pressure positioning and typhoon activity. Comparable August 2023 saw a maximum of 34.1°C; August 2022 reached 35.5°C. The current flat probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasting or treating the market's narrow resolution bands as unattractive relative to basis risk.

Catalysts for traders include the Japan Meteorological Agency's extended forecast updates (typically issued 7–10 days prior) and real-time atmospheric pressure systems tracking across the Western Pacific. Typhoon season peaks in August; any tropical cyclone approach would depress temperatures sharply, whilst a stalled Pacific anticyclone could drive sustained heat. Weather Underground's station data feed occasionally experiences minor delays or corrections within 48 hours post-observation, though Haneda's automated equipment is generally reliable. Traders should monitor JMA advisories and satellite imagery from mid-August onward to assess whether conditions favour the 32–34°C range or break into higher bands.

Methodology

This overview of Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13? reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

Is Polymarket legal in my country?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.

What happens during a tax audit?

You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.

Are prediction markets gambling?

Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).

What if regulation changes?

If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legal in California would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.