World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is currently underway, and this market tracks whether the total count of penalty kicks missed or saved during regular, stoppage, or extra time reaches a specific threshold. Only penalties taken in match time are included; shootout kicks are excluded. Historical data shows that missed penalties are rare but not unprecedented, with the 1994 final featuring the most decisive miss in World Cup history[4][6]. In recent tournaments, teams like Germany have recorded multiple missed penalties without affecting their overall success[3], while Lionel Messi holds the unenviable record for most missed penalties in the 21st century, having failed to convert 31 times from the spot[9]. The current 2% implied probability suggests traders view a high miss count as unlikely, yet comparable cases indicate that even top players can miss under pressure, framing the probability as conservative but not impossible.

Traders should monitor official match schedules, referee appointments, and any announcements regarding penalty decisions during the tournament, as these directly influence the count. Recent coverage highlights Messi’s latest miss in the 2026 World Cup, reinforcing the volatility of penalty outcomes even for elite players[9]. Regulatory frameworks also shape accessibility: German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define compliance boundaries for prediction markets, while the “no-KYC up to $1,500” provision allows broader participation without identity verification for smaller bets. This specific market’s accessibility is thus enhanced for casual traders, though larger positions may require full KYC. No moralising is needed; the facts show that missed penalties remain a low-probability but tangible event, with catalysts tied to match dynamics and regulatory clarity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This overview of World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

How are winnings taxed?

Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.

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Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.

What happens during a tax audit?

You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.

Is there a withdrawal cap?

No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).

What if regulation changes?

If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Is Kalshi Legal in California would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.