Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Is Kalshi Legal in California) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs Team Liquid (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-5.5) vs Team Liquid (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-4.5) vs Team Liquid (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-6.5) vs Team Liquid (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-7.5) vs Team Liquid (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-8.5) vs Team Liquid (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 81% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 80% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs Team Liquid (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-4.5) vs Team Liquid (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs Paper Rex (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Match Winner | 37% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 35% |
| Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) | 21% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: team liquid vs paper rex (bo3) - vct champions group c. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Team Liquid and Paper Rex in the VCT Champions Group C, initially scheduled for September 24, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
This overview of Valorant: Team Liquid vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Is Kalshi Legal in California has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Is Kalshi Legal in California stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Is Kalshi Legal in California exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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